Orb 2035
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Gnd 2035
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Orb 2050
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Gnd 2050
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Delivered 2035
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Delivered 2050
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LCOC with Uncertainty ($/GPU-hr)
Orbital vs Ground market price. Bands = scenario range.
SLA: 99.9% uptime (8.76 hrs/yr downtime)
Orbital (baseline)
Orbital range
Ground (market)
Ground (base)
Orbital Fleet (TW)
All shells: LEO, MEO, GEO, Cislunar
LEO
MEO
GEO
Cislunar
Carbon (gCO₂/TFLOP-hr)
Orbital = embodied; Ground = grid + embodied
Orbital
Ground
Peak Premium
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Premium 2035
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Unmet 2035
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Supply vs Demand (GW)
Gap drives scarcity premium. Orbital-eligible demand = total × eligible share.
Total Demand
Ground Supply
Total Supply
Scarcity Premium (×)
Price multiplier from unmet demand
BW Util 2035
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Platforms 2035
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Platforms 2050
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Shell Utilization (%)
LEO: 500 Tkg mass, GEO: 1.8k slots (ITU), Cislunar: ~unlimited
LEO
MEO
GEO
Cislunar
Bandwidth Utilization (%)
Available / needed. Low = stranded capacity.
Bandwidth Capacity (Tbps)
Ground segment optical links
Stranded Capex Penalty (×)
LCOC multiplier from underutilization
Radiator Mass (kg/kW)
Thermal breakthrough: 50× lighter heat rejection
Bottleneck Analysis
Dominant constraint each period
Thermal
Power
Bandwidth
Orbital Slots
Demand
Launch Cap
LEO Power
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Cislunar
--
Mass 2035
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Mass Breakdown (kg)
Advanced thermal: 50× lighter
Solar/Reactor
Battery
Compute
Radiator
Structure
Launch Cost ($/kg)
Learning curve to $10/kg floor
Compute Efficiency (GFLOPS/W)
AI learning rate drives improvement
Orbital
Ground
Platform Power by Shell (MW)
Fission/fusion enable 10-1000× power jump
LEO
GEO
Cislunar
Specific Power (W/kg)
Key figure of merit for orbital
Power Budget (%)
Compute vs thermal vs housekeeping
Compute
Thermal
Housekeeping
Data Rate per Platform (Gbps)
Link budget based on compute output
Radiation: Reliability Overhead (%)
SEU-driven redundancy by shell (improves with rad-hard tech)
LEO
MEO
GEO
Cislunar
EROL (Energy Return on Launch)
Lifetime energy output vs launch energy
Power per TFLOP (kW/TFLOP)
Efficiency gains reduce power needs. Thermo/photonic show dramatic drops.
Orbital
Ground
Aggressive
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Baseline
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Conservative
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LCOC Scenarios ($/GPU-hr)
Deployment ramp timing under different assumptions
Orbital (baseline)
Orbital range
Ground (market)
Ground (base)
Carbon Scenarios (gCO₂/TFLOP-hr)
Emissions trajectory under each scenario
Orbital (baseline)
Orbital range
Efficiency Scenarios (GFLOPS/W)
Compute efficiency improvement
Orbital (baseline)
Orbital range